Welcome to the Priority-based use of Allocated Vaccines Estimator (PAVE). The tool was developed by the Global Health Crisis Coordination Center (GHC3) with technical assistance from Microsoft and Reprivata. It is intended to aid public health professionals and others working on multiple facets of immunization program planning, as well as vaccine distribution.
“Estimate the amount of vaccine wastage and likely compliance with getting immunized.”
The remarkable progress in development of vaccines against SARS-CoV2, the virus responsible for COVID19, is testimony to immense advances of vaccine technologies, combined with synergistic collaborations and the commitment of governments to support companies in order to accelerate product development, clinical trials and evaluation, as well as efficient, comprehensive and rigorous review of all clinical trial data before approval or licensure of specific vaccine products by regulatory authorities. Implementing these interactive components to provide vaccines to prevent the cause of the COVID19 pandemic in less than a year is an unparalleled, immense achievement. However, as Walt Orenstein, a leading vaccine expert says, “Vaccines don’t save lives. Vaccination does.” Safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines must make it to the arms of those within prioritized groups (especially early on when doses will be limited) to achieve the greatest benefit. PAVE was designed to help immunization programs with that goal.
“Calculate the number of vaccines available within current allotment for each priority category.”
The vaccines that are in late stage clinical evaluation have unique characteristics that will add complexities to immunization programs. The vaccine formulations are novel and products cannot be interchanged between doses, when two vaccines are required for a completed course. Many of the products require special cold storage considerations.
Because there will be few doses available, especially early on, then the amount of vaccine that will be needed to immunize the entire US population, immunization programs will need to consider phases or priorities for immunizing people based on either risk of disease or exposure to the virus, as well as the critical nature of certain types of work to society. PAVE was developed to help programs think through the possibilities towards achieving optimal, equitable vaccine access and use.
PAVE enables the user to enter the number of vaccines to be allotted, estimate the amount of vaccine wastage anticipated, and the likely acceptance (compliance) with getting immunized. PAVE then calculates the number of vaccines available within the current allotment for each priority category.
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The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) published a framework for COVID immunization and included a list of phases with an ordered set of categories. PAVE users can choose the NASEM model and the calculator will populate with each of the priority categories with an estimated number of people within each category.
Once in the NASEM model, the user can move categories up and down, eliminate categories or add new ones (from a drop-down menu). It is also possible to change the number of people in a category (if the user has more updated or valid data), and can change the defaults for the percentage of people targeted in each category, as well as first and second dose compliance. The default vaccine dose wastage figure can be changed at any time by the user.
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While awaiting priorities from CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), we also have provided a model with a list of categories from CDC’s COVID immunization playbook. Once in the CDC playbook model, the user can make changes, as described above for the NASEM model.
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BUILD YOUR OWN
There is also an option to “build your own” model, pulling in priority categories from a drop-down menu. There are buttons on the data page to provide us with suggestions and to report bugs. As you begin to familiarize yourself with the tool, please use these, as we would greatly appreciate your feedback.
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POPULATION ESTIMATES PER CATEGORY
PAVE users can choose any model and the calculator will populate with each of the priority categories with an estimated number of people within each category. You can learn about the methods used to make these estimates.