Priority-based
Allocated
Vaccines
Estimator
PAVE
Welcome to the Priority-based use of Allocated Vaccines Estimator (PAVE).
The tool was developed by the Global Health Crisis Coordination Center
(GHC3) with technical assistance from Microsoft and Reprivata. It is
intended to aid public health professionals and others working on multiple
facets of immunization program planning, as well as vaccine distribution.
“Estimate the amount of vaccine wastage and likely compliance with getting
immunized.”
The remarkable progress in development of vaccines against SARS-CoV2, the
virus responsible for COVID19, is testimony to immense advances of vaccine
technologies, combined with synergistic collaborations and the commitment
of governments to support companies in order to accelerate product
development, clinical trials and evaluation, as well as efficient,
comprehensive and rigorous review of all clinical trial data before
approval or licensure of specific vaccine products by regulatory
authorities. Implementing these interactive components to provide vaccines
to prevent the cause of the COVID19 pandemic in less than a year is an
unparalleled, immense achievement. However, as Walt Orenstein, a leading
vaccine expert says, “Vaccines don’t save lives. Vaccination does.” Safe
and effective COVID-19 vaccines must make it to the arms of those within
prioritized groups (especially early on when doses will be limited) to
achieve the greatest benefit. PAVE was designed to help immunization
programs with that goal.
“Calculate the number of vaccines available within current allotment for
each priority category.”
The vaccines that are in late stage clinical evaluation have unique
characteristics that will add complexities to immunization programs. The
vaccine formulations are novel and products cannot be interchanged between
doses, when two vaccines are required for a completed course. Many of the
products require special cold storage considerations.
Because there will be few doses available, especially early on, then the
amount of vaccine that will be needed to immunize the entire US
population, immunization programs will need to consider phases or
priorities for immunizing people based on either risk of disease or
exposure to the virus, as well as the critical nature of certain types of
work to society. PAVE was developed to help programs think through the
possibilities towards achieving optimal, equitable vaccine access and use.
PAVE enables the user to enter the number of vaccines to be allotted,
estimate the amount of vaccine wastage anticipated, and the likely
acceptance (compliance) with getting immunized. PAVE then calculates the
number of vaccines available within the current allotment for each
priority category.
Click to use
BUILD YOUR OWN
There is also an option to “build your own” model, pulling in priority
categories from a drop-down menu. There are buttons on the data page
to provide us with suggestions and to report bugs. As you begin
to familiarize yourself with the tool, please use these, as we would
greatly appreciate your feedback.
TRY IT NOW
POPULATION ESTIMATES PER CATEGORY
PAVE users can choose any model and the calculator will populate with
each of the priority categories with an estimated number of people
within each category. You can learn about the methods used to make
these estimates.